The 3 possible outcomes for OpenAI’s future: Expert explains

OpenAI has crossed a $157 billion post-money valuation after raising $6.6 billion from investment firms and Big Tech companies in its latest funding round. According to Reuters, OpenAI also asked its investors to refrain from funding its competitors, including Anthropic and Elon Musk’s xAI.

Sultan Meghji, Frontier Foundry co-founder and CEO, joins Catalysts to break down the news and what it means for OpenAI’s outlook.

OpenAI’s latest funding round is the largest funding round for a private company in history. “If you’re a VC [venture capitalist] and you’re doing the math on this, it’s rough order of magnitude 2 to 3 times what their actual revenue would support. And so there’s a lot of energy behind it, a lot of emotion behind it,” Meghji tells Yahoo Finance.

However, he draws awareness to the fact that investors who participated in the funding round are looking for higher revenues from OpenAI. He explains, “It does put a lot of pressure on them, especially with all the staff departures that they’ve had recently. And it’s frankly going to take a lot of energy for them to get there.”

While OpenAI is weighing a for-profit model, Meghji notes that many investors required it. Other investors said they would come back once OpenAI hit their revenue targets. Thus, he expects the company to be focused on driving revenue up, and points to its recent product announcements as a start.

Meghji explains that this fundraising round was critical as OpenAI has been burning through cash. One area that specifically saw a shortfall of cash was regulatory management. Since the US does not have much regulation on AI, the company was spending “a tremendous amount of money” on lobbying efforts. He also notes that OpenAI is spending a significant amount of money on people to manually do data management work.

He believes there are three possible outcomes for OpenAI moving forward: it becomes a Big Tech player, it merges with or gets bought by Big Tech player, or it fails. If OpenAI were to be involved in a merger or acquisition, Meghji expects an antitrust case to follow suit. In the case that OpenAI fails, he likens it to first-generation e-commerce and internet companies of the 2000s.

“One of those three things will happen with OpenAI. It’s just a matter of will they be able to execute well enough and build a product that can get to the kind of enterprise revenue they need?” Meghji posits.

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