Milton hurricane tracker: Storm ‘explodes’ into Category 5 as experts warn Florida could be in for ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ storm

Hurricane Milton went from Category 1 to Category 5 within hours on Monday, shocking even forecasters.

Milton became the fifth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record with winds of 180mph. Even though the storm has weakened slightly, experts worry it can regain its strength.

The rapid intensification of storms has become a norm in recent years as greenhouse gases help trap heat in the atmosphere, creating record-breaking temperatures on land and in oceans, resulting in supercharged storms.

“Hurricane Milton has rapidly intensified at extreme levels over exceptionally warm waters that reach hundreds of feet deep in the Bay of Campeche and Gulf of Mexico,” AccuWeather lead Hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said.

“These deep, warm waters of are acting as ‘rocket fuel’ for the storm, supporting its rapid growth.”

“The ocean heat content is at the highest level on record for this time of year in the Gulf, despite the recent passage of Helene.”

Researchers have found that since 1970s, the number of storms escalating into category 4 or 5 hurricanes has roughly doubled in the North Atlantic.

Even if Hurricane Milton weakens in wind intensity by the time it hits Florida’s Gulf Coast, as forecast suggests, experts are warning that this does not mean less danger.

“We do not want people to see a reduction in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale rating for Milton before landfall and think there will be less danger,” AccuWeather meteorologist Jon Porter said.

“In fact, there’s even more danger because the storm will broaden out and increase in size, with a larger risk of life-threatening storm surge and powerful winds impacting more places and people across Florida.

“We have seen so many preventable tragedies during Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Ian. Even after Helene weakened, it caused significant flooding and damage in the Carolinas, showing that weakened hurricanes can still lead to catastrophic outcomes.”

Hurricane Milton has temporarily weakened to a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 155mph, down from 165mph, according to an update from the National Hurricane Center.

The storm is currently located about 585 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida, moving east at 9mph.

Although Milton has dipped into Category 4 status, experts warn that it is expected to regain Category 5 strength by Tuesday morning local time. The storm is forecast to fluctuate in intensity before making landfall on Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane near the Tampa Bay area.

Hurricane Milton’s maximum sustained winds have weakened slightly to 165mph, down from 180mph, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Despite the slight decrease in intensity, Milton remains a powerful Category 5 storm as it churns roughly 630 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida.

The storm is moving east at 9 mph and is expected to make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane near Tampa late Wednesday.

The slight weakening is attributed to an eyewall replacement cycle, a process in which a larger outer eyewall forms and replaces the inner one, leading to temporary weakening but often expanding the hurricane’s size.

Forecasters caution that Milton’s intensity may fluctuate over the next 24 hours due to this cycle. Without significant wind shear or land interaction, the storm could re-strengthen before reaching land.

A storm surge is the abnormal rise of seawater pushed towards the shore by a hurricane’s strong winds. This surge can cause severe flooding and destruction, often being one of the deadliest aspects of a hurricane.

Storm surge and hurricane watches are currently in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula.

Forecasters are warning that the surge from Hurricane Milton could reach up to 23 feet in some areas along Florida’s Gulf Coast, potentially submerging homes and infrastructure, and causing catastrophic damage.

“Slight variations in Milton’s track can have major ramifications for the impacts experienced in various parts of Florida,” AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jon Porter said.

“For example, in a scenario which now appears more probable, should an intense Milton track just north of Tampa, storm surges of 23ft could occur in parts of Tampa Bay, resulting in widespread, catastrophic damage not seen in this part of Tampa Bay in modern history,” he said.

Damage from the surge and wind can be compounded for areas flooded by Helene, the forecaster warned, as much of the debris is still in place and will be picked up by flood waters and turned into projectiles by the wind. Some structures weakened by the flooding, or partially damaged by the flooding, from Helene will be more susceptible to the flooding from Milton.

Hurricane Milton intensified to Category 5, the highest on the scale, within hours, leaving many wondering if it could reach the hypothetical Category 6 level.

Currently, the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale caps at Category 5, which includes any storm with sustained winds of 157 mph or higher. Milton, with winds of 180 mph, is already in this category.

While Category 6 does not officially exist, some experts argue that the scale could need revisiting as storms become stronger.

In a recent research, climate scientists Michael Wehner and Jim Kossin suggested that storms with winds exceeding 192 mph, which have only been recorded in five storms since 1980, could warrant a new category.

Though the National Hurricane Center hasn’t proposed adding a Category 6, researchers say it’s time to reassess how hurricanes are categorised, especially as warming oceans, like the Gulf of Mexico, supercharge storms to extreme.

Speaking about his study, Dr Wehner said at the time that the aim is “to reconsider how the open-endedness of the Saffir-Simpson Scale can lead to underestimation of risk, and, in particular, how this underestimation becomes increasingly problematic in a warming world.”

“Even under the relatively low global warming targets of the Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit global warming to just 1.5C above preindustrial temperatures by the end of this century, the increased chances of Category 6 storms are substantial in these simulations,” he said.

Hurricane Milton can bring a “worst-case impact for the Tampa Bay area”, warned AccuWeather.

“You do not want to wait for storm surge to start occurring before you take action,” chief meteorologist Jon Porter said.

“We have seen so many preventable tragedies during Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Ian. Please get out of areas at risk of this devastating storm surge while you still can.”

“We are very concerned that Hurricane Milton could become one of the most damaging and costliest storms that Florida has ever seen.”