By otakuyassine3@gmail.com 
As of this week, the Alabama Crimson Tide is the last team in for the College Football Playoff, but that’s before the conference championship games are played, which could still impact the final rankings and bracket seedings.
No. 11 Alabama (9-3) finished the regular season in a six-way tied for fourth place in the Southeastern Conference. Thanks primarily to strength of schedule, the Crimson Tide got the nod over all of them and No. 12 Miami in last week’s CFP rankings. The two-loss Hurricanes and Atlantic Coast Conference both naturally claimed foul as the the league has played itself into position to potentially have just one team in the brackets, but “The U” hasn’t played an opponent that was ranked at the time, and lost its only game against teams in the current rankings (No. 22 Syracuse).
Unlike last week, when Alabama fans were cheering for chaos, and got just enough to re-enter the brackets, for the these final few games they want the opposite: predictable stability. However, one game clearly stands out as the one they need to watch:
Friday’s Games/Group 5
The Group of 5 slot — the American Athletic Conference (American), Conference USA (CUSA), Mid-American Conference (MAC), Mountain West Conference (MW) and Sun Belt Conference, plus essentially the Pac-12 Conference this season — will likely be secured. There are three Group of 5 title games Friday, and two more Saturday, but the Boise State game is the only one that can influence Alabama’s spot in the rankings as the Broncos are No. 10 and could earn first-round bye. Even if they lose to UNLV they’d almost certainly just be replaced by the Rebels in the field and the committee could instead give a bye to Big 12 champion. From an entertainment standpoint the most intriguing matchup of the whole weekend may be Tulane against Army.
Friday
• CUSA Championship: Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State, 6 p.m., CT, CBSSN
 • Mountain West Championship: No. 20 UNLV vs. No. 10 Boise State, 7 p.m., Fox
• AAC Championship: Tulane vs. No. 24 Army, 7 p.m., ABC
Saturday
• MAC Championship: Ohio vs. Miami (Ohio), 11 a.m., ESPN
• Sun Belt Championship: Marshall vs. Louisiana, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
Big 12 Championship Game
No. 16 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Arizona State, 11 a.m., Saturday, ABC: The kickoff game for Saturday’s championships is a pretty simple matchup of the winner heads to the playoff as the likely 12th seed (unless Boise State loses), while the loser goes to a respectable bowl game. The Sun Devils are slightly favored at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
SEC Championship Game
No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 2 Texas (SEC Championship), 3 p.m., ABC: The Oklahoma loss knocked Alabama out of making the trip to Atlanta. Although Crimson Tide fans will be drawn to this showdown the outcome probably impact UA’s status. The one exception may be if Georgia loses the committee might want to look at placing the Bulldogs behind the Crimson Tide in the seedings since Alabama beat Georgia this season, but UGA is considered a lock for the playoff. Texas is slightly favored even though the game will be played in Georgia territory.
Big Ten Championship Game
No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten Championship), 7 p.m., CBS: Again, there’s no direct impact on Alabama, although the loser could end up hosting the Crimson Tide in a first-round playoff matchup later this month. As the lone undefeated team, Oregon and favored by about a field goal or 3.5 points, and will clinch being the the top-seeded team with a win. Penn State’s lone loss so far was the Ohio State, so either way the losing team isn’t falling far in the seedings.
ACC Championship Game
No. 17 Clemson vs. No. 8 SMU (ACC Championship), 7 p.m., ABC: It’s probably the make-or-break game for the Crimson Tide in terms of making the playoff, but even that’s not as cut-and-dry as it looks. The simple outcome for Alabama fans to root for is a Clemson loss. If the Tigers lose, they can’t move ahead of Alabama and are out. Should the Tigers win, the committee will have to take a strong look at two-loss SMU and three-loss Alabama. SMU’s regular-season loss was to BYU, which is the only opponent in the current rankings. It won both games against teams ranked at the time (No. 22 Louisville and No. 18 Pitt). Alabama has played four teams that were ranked at the time, going 3-1 (then-No. 2 Georgia, at No. 15 LSU, and No. 21 Missouri, and lost at No. 7 Tennessee). It’s also 3-1 against team in the latest rankings, including No. 14 South Carolina. So if the Mustangs are going to lose, Crimson Tide fans will want them to lose badly. The worst-case scenario is that SMU, which oddsmakers have as a slight favorite, loses a close game but looks good overall.
Of Note/Outlook: If there are no upsets in the Power 4 title games on Saturday, when no team is favored by more than 3.5 points (Oregon), the most likely scenario is that Alabama would make the playoff and be playing either at Penn State or Ohio State in the first round. It would depend on how far the Nittany Lions drop after the loss, plus they lost to the Buckeyes earlier this season. The winner of that theoretical first-matchup could move on to play SMU in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta.
Even if there are upsets, the Crimson Tide’s position may not move much, or at all. Per the CFP agreement, Notre Dame can’t have a bye since it doesn’t fully participate in a conference, but it’s in excellent position to move up to the 5th seeding should either Texas or Penn State lose. The most likely scenario for Alabama to visit Notre Dame in the first round is Penn State beats Oregon and the Ducks drop to the 5th seeding, keeping the Irish as the 6th seed.
CFP Rankings
Rank, Team, Record
1 Oregon 12-0
2 Texas 11-1
3 Penn State 11-1
4 Notre Dame 11-1
5 Georgia 10-2
6 Ohio State 10-2
7 Tennessee 10-2
8 SMU 11-1
9 Indiana 11-1
10 Boise State 11-1
11 Alabama 9-3
12 Miami 10-2
13 Ole Miss 9-3
14 South Carolina 9-3
15 Arizona State 10-2
16 Iowa State 10-2
17 Clemson 9-3
18 BYU 10-2
19 Missouri 9-3
20 UNLV 10-2
21 Illinois 9-3
22 Syracuse 9-3
23 Colorado 9-3
24 Army 10-1
25 Memphis 10-2
See Also: Q&A: How the CFP Selection Committee Ranked Alabama, and Why
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